What's Next for McGrady?

There's a long list of players that have the reputation - usually earned - of being injury-prone. Marcus Camby. Jermaine O'Neal. Yao Ming. T.J. Ford.

Some of the guys in my home league call 'em "lepers." (Not me, of course. That would be inappropriate and wrong.)

The number one guy on the list is almost certainly Tracy McGrady. No one has ever questioned McGrady's transcendent talent… but fully 95 percent of all preseason outlooks on McGrady include the phrase "if he can stay heathy…" or words to that effect.

But lately, we're hearing a new gripe about McGrady. The biggest questions raised by Rockets observers are questioning his effort, not his health. According to various reports, the Rockets wanted to sit McGrady for an extended period to rest his sore knees. McGrady refused, preferring to play as much as possible… but the pain has limited his minutes - he's expected to sit at least one game of the Rockets' next few back-to-backs - and his production when on the floor has been spotty at best.

McGrady is obviously a huge key to the Rockets' success - as their "point forward," he makes their offense go. But Houston is also a tremendously deep team this season - one could certainly make the case that the team would be better off in the short term giving extended minutes to the likes of Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry and Luther Head, and letting McGrady get as healthy… well, as healthy as he ever gets.

Expect this situation to come to a head soon… and grab any Houston bench players that are available in your league in the meantime.

Read the entire column -- and get this week's waiver wire suggestions -- on NBA.com.

Little Short for a Pivot... but Whatever

In fantasy baseball, there are always a couple of players who have a chance of qualifying at an alternate position and increasing their value tenfold. There’s a chance, however slight, that Brandon Inge will get in enough games to slot in at catcher…

The fantasy basketball equivalent: anyone on the Golden State roster. Our latest example: in a game on March 30, swingman Kelenna Azubuike was officially listed as the Warriors’ starting center, as coach Don Nelson went with an ultra-small lineup in an attempt to match up with the Nuggets.

Depending on how liberal your league’s position requirements are, Azubuike might qualify now at shooting guard – and in the middle. At this time of year, that sort of roster quirk could be very useful, especially if Azubuike contributes more lines like his output on April 4 against Memphis: 40 minutes, 15 points, 10 boards, 6-12 from the field, 2-2 from three.

How many centers can give you numbers like that?

Story continues on NBA.com...

Let the Kids Play

As the playoff picture becomes more concrete, more teams will be looking to take an extended look at younger players or get the veterans healthy for the postseason. A quick look at the standings may offer hints on where to look for help on the waiver wire.

On the top end of the standings, the Celtics have clinched the Atlantic Division and hold a six-game lead over the Pistons for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. We’re already seeing Doc Rivers give his subs some extra playing time as a result.

Detroit is more or less locked into the two seed. They’ve clinched the Central division and hold a five-and-a-half game cushion over the Southeast champs, the Magic. Like the Celtics, they can afford to give the younger guys some run. So can the Magic, who are locked into the three seed with a six-game lead over fourth-place Cleveland.

One game separates spots five through seven in the East, so the Wizards, Raptors and Sixers will be playing all-out through to the end, as will the Hawks, who are currently three games up on the Nets and Pacers for the last playoff position.

In the West, just six games separate the one seed from the ninth spot, and none of the divisions are set yet. No one is resting anyone.

On the bottom end of the standings, the Knicks and Heat are the only teams that have been mathematically eliminated in the East, but the Bulls, Bobcats and Bucks don’t have much of a shot at this point. In the West, the Kings, Clippers, T-Wolves, Grizzlies and Sonics are out of the running, and Portland – five games behind ninth-place Denver -- is very close to being officially eliminated.

Story continues on NBA.com...

Working the Wire

Last week in this space, I wrote about injuries as the main source of useful fantasy players at this point of the season.

This week, we’ll put that theory to the test.

The Injury: Dirk Nowitzki suffered the dreaded “high ankle” sprain as well as a sprained knee during Sunday’s game.

The prognosis: The ankle injury is being called “moderate” while the knee injury is “slight.”
Initial estimates had him returning in as little as a week to two weeks – but short of a pilgrimage to Lourdes, high ankle sprains don’t typically heal that fast.

The options: You’d generally expect him to be shelved for 3-4 weeks with this sort of injury – but the season ends three weeks from today.

Dallas is in a particularly tough spot. They’re currently sitting in seventh place in the West and are very much in danger of falling out of playoff position. At the same time, they really can’t risk losing Nowitzki for the playoffs, should they qualify. So the scenarios might break down like this:

Story continues on NBA.com...

Working the Wire

With the NCAA Tournament starting this week, it seems appropriate to kick off this week’s column with a quote from a legend in the college hoops ranks, Mr. Rick Pitino.

Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door.

Now, Rick Pitino was addressing what he felt were overly negative Boston fans at the time… not fantasy basketball owners. But the point is a good one for fantasy GMs to consider. By this point of the season, it’s incredibly unlikely that you’ll land a superstar – or even a solid top-of-rotation player on the waiver wire. It’s time to set your sights a bit lower.


Column continues on NBA.com...

Imperfect February for Houston

The Rockets' perfect February has suddenly developed some very deep flaws, with the news that Yao Ming will miss the remainder of the season and playoffs due to a stress fracture in his foot.

Fantasy owners will want to act quickly and put in a claim on Luis Scola. Scola was a decent pick even before this news – we wrote about his progress in last week's column. With Yao out of the mix, Scola likely becomes Houston's primary offensive option in the frontcourt. Scola is under 10 percent-owned in Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner – expect that number to rise quicker than the price of oil when the news of Yao’s injury really gets around.

Story continues at NBA.com...

Sixer Speculation

(Originally published at NBA.com)

The axe finally dropped this week on Sixer general manager Billy King. It seems reasonable to expect that this won’t be the only change at the Wachovia Center – and that could mean excellent opportunities for fantasy owners willing to engage in a little speculation.

The most obvious candidate to be traded once new team president Ed Stefanski gets settled is veteran point guard Andre Miller. Miller’s name has been floated in trade rumors since he arrived in Philly as part of the Allen Iverson trade. There are several would-be contenders that could use help at the point – Miami and Cleveland have been mentioned as potential suitors, though others could emerge (Boston? The Lakers?). Moving Miller would give the Sixers a chance to give Louis Williams an extended audition as point-guard-of-the-future, and to decide what sort of contract to offer their second-round pick from 2005.

But Miller is hardly the only Sixer who might not want to unpack his bags after the next road trip. Consider this:

• After this season, Chris Webber’s contract comes off the books, as does Aaron McKie’s.
• Kevin Ollie, Shavlik Randolph and the aforementioned Williams also have deals that expire after this year.

With those salaries gone, the Sixers have a mere $39 million-and-change committed to player salaries for 2008-09. They could create even more space by moving a moderately-priced veteran or two (Reggie Evans? Kyle Korver? Willie Green?) for contracts that expire after this season or the next. It might even be worth Stefanski’s time to check for interest in Andre Iguodala, who recently decided not to sign a long-term deal with Philly.

Of course, if those veterans are moved, someone will need to step in and fill the void. That could mean a sudden surge in minutes and production for one or several members of the Sixers’ 25-and-under set. Watch the playing time and production of guys like Williams, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young and Rodney Carney, and be ready to make a claim.

Read the full article, including this week's waiver wire suggestions for deep and shallow leagues, at NBA.com or on RotoWire.

Trabajo de la Wire

An addendum to this week's Working the Wire column... if he's available in your league (and according to the Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner stats, he's available in nearly every league) put in a claim on Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies.

I was actually very high on Navarro, even before training camps opened. He seemed to be landing in an ideal situation -- on a team expected to play an open, European-style offense stolen from, er, inspired by the Phoenix Suns -- and with Pau Gasol, his teammate for years on the Spanish national team. (I tried to draft him in the NBA.com expert league, but because his trade from Washington to Memphis wasn't quite final, he wasn't available at the time. Going on the "best available rookie from Europe" strategy, I wound up with Marco Belinelli instead. C'est la vie.)

Navarro didn't have a clear role at the start of the season -- scoring just 30 points total in Memphis first seven games -- and he dropped off the radar of a certain fantasy hoops writer with a remarkably short attention span. Seeing him play last night, in the Grizzlies' win over the Nets -- showed me I was right about him all along. (Until I forgot about him... that part was wrong.)

When given playing time, Navarro has produced numbers that match or exceed the production of any other rookie in the league. In the five games in which he's played 30 or more minutes, he's averaged 20.4 points, 4.4 boards and four assists -- in his breakout game against New Jersey on Tuesday night, he scored 16 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. On the season, he's shooting 46 percent from the floor and 44 percent from three, and hitting 88 percent of his free throws.

And much like his countryman Jorge Garbajosa, he's an excellent "glue guy" -- the Grizzlies seem to play better when he's on the floor. "Glue Guy" isn't a category in most fantasy formats -- but if "doing the little things that helps the team win" means he gets more minutes, those little things do have real fantasy value.

A note about this post's title... it was intended to be "Working the Wire" in Spanish. Unfortunately, I took French in high school - so Google Translate was the best I could do. (Is the Spanish word for "wire" really "wire?")

Working the Wire: 11/28

This week's fantasy hoops waiver wire suggestions are live at NBA.com and RotoWire. Here's a preview:

Let’s kick off this week with a look at the most-added player in Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner leagues.

Grant Hill – PHX [SG, SF]: As Darth Vader said to one of his Imperial lackeys, “I find your lack of faith disturbing.” Yes, Hill’s injury history is as terrifying as a seven-foot space villain who can choke people with his mind. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s getting big minutes for one of the NBA’s top offenses, but is only owned in 43 percent of all Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner leagues – up from just 23 percent a week ago.

One reason not to own Hill – his stats are somewhat empty: nice scoring, but little else (15.4 points, 4.8 boards, 2.9 assists). But ask yourself – why is a guy with a career average of five dimes per game posting half that number for a team known for ball movement? Especially when one of the reasons given for his signing was to add a presence able to initiate the offense when Steve Nash is on the bench? I strongly suspect that Hill’s current role – that of a spot-up scorer – will expand as he grows more familiar with Mike D’Antoni’s sets and his new teammates.

Hill is a substantial injury risk, that we’ll grant you. And that risk is probably exacerbated by the 30-plus minutes per game he’s been logging. That doesn’t change the fact that he can help a lot of fantasy teams – and in more than half of all Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner leagues, he’s there for the taking.

(Read all this week's picks at NBA.com or RotoWire (subscription required).

Waiver Wire Picks

This week's waiver wire picks were posted over on NBA.com back on the 21st... I'm just posting them here now after a series of turkey-coma-related delays.

The big recommendations of the week are bench players getting extra run due to injuries, including:

• Stromile Swift
• Jannero Pargo
• Ira Newble
• Beno Udrih

Check out all the picks over on NBA.com.

Working the Wire

This week's "Working the Wire" column is up over on NBA.com. Some of the players we like this week:

• Cuttino Mobley -- back in the starting lineup, explodes for 33 points
• DeSagana Diop -- nice short-term double-double threat with Dampier out
• Jason Terry -- on the off chance that he was waived in your league when he lost his starting gig

Feedback and questions are always welcome.

Working the Wire

This week's fantasy hoops column on NBA.com is live... picks for the week include:

• Orien Greene -- Sacramento's starting point guard while Mike Bibby is out
• Kenyon Martin -- Apparently healthy, finally
• Malik Allen -- This year's winner of the "Stats inflated by Jason Kidd" award
• Paul Davis -- The Clippers' first big man off the bench

Feedback is welcome, as always.

Working the Wire

Fantasy hoops enthusiasts take note: the first of my weekly columns was published today on NBA.com.

Once the season tips off, we'll use the column to find fantasy value from the players sitting on the waiver wire in most leagues... for this preseason installment, we're mostly looking at the guys -- like Portland's Martell Webster and Philly rookie Jason Smith -- who may earn jobs based on strong training camp performances or roster changes.

Here's a link to the full article -- feedback, as always -- is welcome.