What's Next for McGrady?

There's a long list of players that have the reputation - usually earned - of being injury-prone. Marcus Camby. Jermaine O'Neal. Yao Ming. T.J. Ford.

Some of the guys in my home league call 'em "lepers." (Not me, of course. That would be inappropriate and wrong.)

The number one guy on the list is almost certainly Tracy McGrady. No one has ever questioned McGrady's transcendent talent… but fully 95 percent of all preseason outlooks on McGrady include the phrase "if he can stay heathy…" or words to that effect.

But lately, we're hearing a new gripe about McGrady. The biggest questions raised by Rockets observers are questioning his effort, not his health. According to various reports, the Rockets wanted to sit McGrady for an extended period to rest his sore knees. McGrady refused, preferring to play as much as possible… but the pain has limited his minutes - he's expected to sit at least one game of the Rockets' next few back-to-backs - and his production when on the floor has been spotty at best.

McGrady is obviously a huge key to the Rockets' success - as their "point forward," he makes their offense go. But Houston is also a tremendously deep team this season - one could certainly make the case that the team would be better off in the short term giving extended minutes to the likes of Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry and Luther Head, and letting McGrady get as healthy… well, as healthy as he ever gets.

Expect this situation to come to a head soon… and grab any Houston bench players that are available in your league in the meantime.

Read the entire column -- and get this week's waiver wire suggestions -- on NBA.com.

NBA Strength of Schedule

Basketball being an indoor sport, we don’t often consider the weather as a factor in NBA games. But Mother Nature can have a significant impact on travel schedules – especially this time of year – and especially for teams playing back-to-backs in places like Chicago, Minneapolis and New York.

For example: the Rockets will play in Philly on Tuesday and in Boston on Wednesday. Bad weather on Tuesday night and a late arrival into Massachusetts could make Kevin Garnett and company even more daunting. That same night, the Hornets will be flying into Salt Lake, the Thunder into Minnesota, and the Sixers into Wisconsin.

The Pistons have a real Rocky Mountain High later in the week, spending Friday in Denver and Saturday in Salt Lake. Perhaps Allen Iverson and company can get in some skiing after the morning shootarounds.

Or maybe not.

Read the entire Strength of Schedule article every week at Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Bad Chemistry

From: zegers@rotowire.com
Subject: Give and Go
Date: December 29, 2008 7:06 PM PDT
To: liss@rotowire.com

Hope you had a good holiday, Chris. Santa bring you anything good? My favorite present: a pair of tickets for me and my son to go see Xavier vs. Fordham at the Rose Hill Gym. The Rams are terrible this year, and Xavier is in the top 25 – which means my alma mater is probably going to get squashed … but hearing the little guy chant DE- FENSE makes it all worth it.

Following up on last week’s plea for more competitive balance …

The Lakers and Celtics entered their Christmas Day game with a combined record of 50-8. The Thunder and Wizards entered Saturday’s game with a combined record of 7-50. I’m not sure what that means, but I liked the symmetry of it.

Not as much as I enjoyed the “Steve Francis gets traded to the Grizzlies” symmetry … but I liked it.

Read all of Give and Go on Yahoo! Sports

Give and Go: Final Four Recap and Playoff Positioning

For the first 37-and-change minutes of Monday's NCAA championship game, I was planning for this column to be an extended treatise on my man-love of Derrick Rose and some theories on how I could guarantee the Knicks a top-two pick in the upcoming lottery. But my faith was shaken by that last 2:12.

Three things, actually, bothered me deeply about that game. The missed free throws, obviously, were the big thing.

The more disturbing part, though, was the fact that missing those free throws seemed to take both Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts out of their games completely. Maybe I'm reading too much into what I saw, but it seemed to me they stopped driving to the basket, almost like they didn't want to risk another trip to the line, for fear they'd put up more bricks. I don't think it was a coincidence the missed free throws and Memphis' championship-killing six-minute drought from the field happened simultaneously.

The third thing was actually a piece of insight from Billy Packer, which is remarkable in and of itself, but the ol' curmudgeon did have a good point or two when he wasn't telling us how many possessions the team behind needed to tie the game. (Thank you Billy. We can divide by three just as well as you can.)

At one point, Packer noted that Rose was much more effective when Memphis didn't try to run him off screens. He was at his best taking his man one-on-one off the dribble. And ya know, I think he was right. But here's my problem with that. We were in the last five minutes of Memphis' 40th game of the season, and their point guard, their floor leader, is most comfortable and effective operating OUTSIDE the set offense?!?

It's almost like he's a Knick already!

Story continues on FoxSports.com...

Little Short for a Pivot... but Whatever

In fantasy baseball, there are always a couple of players who have a chance of qualifying at an alternate position and increasing their value tenfold. There’s a chance, however slight, that Brandon Inge will get in enough games to slot in at catcher…

The fantasy basketball equivalent: anyone on the Golden State roster. Our latest example: in a game on March 30, swingman Kelenna Azubuike was officially listed as the Warriors’ starting center, as coach Don Nelson went with an ultra-small lineup in an attempt to match up with the Nuggets.

Depending on how liberal your league’s position requirements are, Azubuike might qualify now at shooting guard – and in the middle. At this time of year, that sort of roster quirk could be very useful, especially if Azubuike contributes more lines like his output on April 4 against Memphis: 40 minutes, 15 points, 10 boards, 6-12 from the field, 2-2 from three.

How many centers can give you numbers like that?

Story continues on NBA.com...

Shades of Willis Reed

Dirk Nowitzki's return from injury has been nothing short of amazing.

When the diagnosis "high ankle sprain" was announced, most observers assumed Nowitzki would be – at the very least – hobbled for the rest of the regular season. The "two week" estimate for his return was viewed with skepticism – if not outright mockery. But Nowitzki made his surprise return to the lineup a mere 10 days later.

And the Nowitzki we're seeing isn't hobbling around like Kirk Gibson on ruined knees in the World Series. He's playing at – or above – his season averages. On a per-game basis since his return, Nowitzki's averaging 25.7 points and 7.0 rebounds. For the season: 23.5 points and 8.7 rebounds.

More importantly, he's leading the Mavs to wins. Dallas is in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule that will decide whether or not they make the playoffs in an unforgiving Western Conference. They've won two of three games since Nowitzki's return, beating the Warriors on April 2nd and the Suns on Sunday (with a loss at the Lakers in between). Those two wins are Dallas' only two over winning teams since the acquisition of Jason Kidd at the trade deadline.

As I write, the Mavs are in seventh place in the West, two games ahead of Golden State and Denver, with five games remaining. Their remaining games: Seattle (home), Utah (home), Portand (away), Seattle (away) and New Orleans (home) -- that's two must-wins over a bad Sonics team and three more chances to improve that record against winning teams. If they can close out the season on a high – maybe upset the Spurs in a first-round matchup – we might start talking about Dirk's ankle the way we talk about Willis' knees or Schilling's bloody sock.

Story continues on RotoWire...

Give and Go: Donnie Walsh, the '07 Draft and More

From: zegers@rotowire.com
Subject: Give and Go
Date: March 25, 2008 7:50 AM PDT
To: liss@rotowire.com

First things first -- how are your brackets? Sadly, I had Pittsburgh and Georgetown in the Final Four, so my chances of finishing in the money are very similar to the Knicks' chances of making the playoffs.

I stand behind my Georgetown pick... but the Pitt selection, in retrospect, was pretty dumb. If I had factored in the "seven man rotation" factor and the "sent to Denver" factor, I might have realized that they'd be absolutely dead on their feet mid-way through the second half of their second game... which, of course, is what happened.

Now that you've had a chance to actually see some college ballers this year, anyone jump out at you as an NBA prospect?

That aside, there are two big NBA stories on all the back pages -- Dirk Nowitzki's injury and Donnie Walsh's job status.

Not much to say about Nowitzki that I didn't already say in this week's Barometer -- I love Brandon Bass as a short-term pickup in every fantasy format, and I think there's a very real possibility that the Mavs will fall out of the playoff picture. Agree? Disagree?

As for Donnie Walsh... as I wrote on my blog last week, I was really beginning to think Walsh was just using the Knicks to secure a better deal from the Pacers. (Actually, I'm not convinced that wasn't the case -- it may be that it just didn't work.) Now most of the NBA press is reporting that Walsh will take a job at Madison Square Garden any day now.

You think he's the right man for the job? He has an excellent reputation -- but the Pacers haven't exactly been the picture of stability over the last several seasons. Would you rather have him running your team, or one of the other oft-mentioned candidates -- a Kiki Vanderweghe or Jerry Colangelo or -- dare I suggest it -- Jerry West?

Personally, I'm a Colangelo guy. Jerry West, it has been reported, hates New York -- at best, hiring the Logo means giving an NBA legend one more payday... but the Knicks just did that with Isiah Thomas.

I'm not sure what Kiki did to merit the reputation he seems to have as a front-office guy, aside from having 'Melo fall into his lap. Tell me again where he drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili? Fifth overall? In a draft where Amare Stoudemire went ninth and Caron Butler 10th?

Actually, a lot of guys would like a do-over in that draft... after Yao Ming (1st) Stoudemire and Butler there's a whole lot of "unfulfilled potential" in the top of that draft.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Bass Fishin'

Before you read the rest of this column, go put in a waiver claim on Brandon Bass. Hurry. I'll wait.

All set?

Good.

Now then... unless you've been in deep seclusion due to the fact that you had Duke, Georgetown and Pittsburgh in the Final Four, you know that Dirk Nowitzki suffered a "lower leg" injury during Sunday's game. As of Monday afternoon, that Bill Belichick-ian diagnosis has been clarified – Nowitzki has a high ankle sprain and a knee sprain. As you know if you read Jim Russo's "In Street Clothes" column here on RotoWire, a high ankle sprain is bad news. To quote Mr. Russo:

A high ankle sprain is more severe than the ankle sprains you typically see because it involves not only the stabilizing ligaments on the inside and outside of the ankle, but also the syndesmotic ligament, a circular shaped structure which wraps the distal end of the tibia and fibula, the long bones of the lower leg. When the ankle rolls severely, it can stretch this ligament causing those two bones to separate to a small degree. It's not much but the swelling and pain is extreme and the ankle becomes unstable.

Now I'm not much on book learnin' – but based on that explanation and the official diagnosis, it seems to me that the initial report that Dirk would return in two weeks is a bit aggressive.

Article continues on Rotowire.com...

Working the Wire

With the NCAA Tournament starting this week, it seems appropriate to kick off this week’s column with a quote from a legend in the college hoops ranks, Mr. Rick Pitino.

Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door.

Now, Rick Pitino was addressing what he felt were overly negative Boston fans at the time… not fantasy basketball owners. But the point is a good one for fantasy GMs to consider. By this point of the season, it’s incredibly unlikely that you’ll land a superstar – or even a solid top-of-rotation player on the waiver wire. It’s time to set your sights a bit lower.


Column continues on NBA.com...

Skip to My Lou

The Rockets were so dissatisfied with their point guard position this offseason, it seemed they were very close to bringing guys in off the street for tryouts. Rafer Alston was the most unpopular incumbent this side of George Dubya Bush.

Mike James, Steve Francis, rookie Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, and John Lucas III were all considered candidates to take over the spot.

A few months later, the Rockets are riding the second-longest winning streak in NBA history even after losing Yao Ming for the season, and Rafer Alston has been a major factor – even before his 31-point explosion against the Lakers on Sunday. No less an authority than former Houston coach and ABC analyst Jeff Van Gundy has called Alston the key to the Rockets' winning streak and one of the top point guards in the league this season.

While we're not quite ready to group Skip to My Lou in the same league with Nashie, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Jason Kidd, Alston has been remarkably efficient of late. In eight games this March, he's averaging nearly 19 points on over 42 percent shooting from the field and from three -- with five assists, and just under four boards. He's also been an adept thief, with 1.6 steals per game.

Meanwhile – all those other guys who were supposed to take his job have faded into the background. Brooks has played in just four of eight games in March, and averaged under 10 minutes when he's gotten in. Mike James is gone, as is John Lucas. Francis is out for the year with a torn quad.

Of that list of backcourt players that at times resembled an American Idol audition, only Luther Head plays a significant role for the team today. He and Bobby Jackson – who arrived in the trade that sent James to New Orleans – are valuable 10-15 minute/night bench players for Houston; neither is considered a serious challenger for Alston's job.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Operation Shutdown

We've hit the point in the season when the status of several key players will be governed by the law of diminishing returns. Why force a player to hobble through 20 more games, when he can get a jump-start on surgery or treatment or rehab and increase the chances he'll be healthy for the start of the 2008-09 campaign?

The biggest name to initiate Operation Shutdown so far is Dwyane Wade. (We don't include Yao Ming in this count – it's not like Yao had a choice about sitting out the rest of the season.) We've been expecting this for several weeks - the Heat aren't winning games with him, he hasn't been 100 percent healthy all season - letting him heal seems like the most logical course of action.

Of course, like Yao, Wade is reportedly targeting the Olympics, and not the start of next season, for his return to the court. Expect that to be the subject of much controversy in the offseason, particularly if either superstar experiences any sort of setback in rehab.

The next player who might appear on this list is the Knicks' Eddy Curry. With Zach Randolph on the shelf, Curry was actually very productive for three straight games, scoring 19, 20 and 23 points. Apparently the exertion was too much for him; the New York Post reports that he has torn cartilage in his knee and may need surgery.

Other candidates: Milwaukee forward Yi Jianlian, who continues to suffer from an as-yet undetermined wrist injury, Washington swingman DeShawn Stevenson, who reportedly needs a cane to walk after games due to the pain in his knee, and Caron Butler, whose hip injury is still weeks away from healing.

As more teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, look for this list to grow.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Working the Wire: Rockets Blasting Off

The news of Yao Ming’s season-ending injury broke last week as I was writing this column, so I spent a little time in that piece discussing how the absence of an all-world center would impact the production of Houston’s waiver-available players.

Now that we have a few games’ worth of stats to review, let’s take a second look and see who’s stepping up.

Each player is listed with his Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner percent-owned stat in parentheses.

Column continues on NBA.com...

Give and Go: Injury Reports

Caron Butler has been the best player on one of my teams for the better part of this season. So like a lot of fantasy NBA players, I was pretty frustrated by the way the Wizards have handled his latest injury. For those who haven't been keeping close tabs, the updates went something like this:

Day 1: Ah, he tweaked his hip. He's day-to-day.

Day 2: He's day-to-day.

Day 3-10: He's day-to-day.

Day 11: He's got a torn something-or-other, he'll be out for a while.

(I'll leave the actual description of the injury and its ramifications to our esteemed colleague Mr. Russo.)

I don't know if the Wizards weren't being honest, or if they just didn't know the extent of the injury at first. But I can't help but think that they weren't being 100 percent straight with me. I imagine it's a similar feeling to what baseball owners went through with B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays last season. (That was, "it's a sprain... it's a sprain... it's Tommy John surgery," for those who blocked out the details.)

So my question is... how much information do sports teams owe fans/fantasy players, where player injuries are concerned? On the one hand, there's an obvious competitive advantage to playing these things close to the vest. But on the other, there are any number of reasons that it's only fair for fans to know whether or not their favorite players are suiting up on a given night. If I'm dropping a couple hundred dollars on tickets to an NBA game, I want to have some assurance that I'm going to see Kobe Bryant and not Sasha Vujacic, y'know?

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

How's That Working Out For You?

In last week's Give and Go column, Chris Liss and I talked about how difficult it is for NBA teams to handle major personnel changes at mid-season. Comfort level and familiarity with teammates is so crucial to success at both ends of the floor – and that really only comes from practice reps. And yet, several teams with title aspirations decided to roll the dice this year and make major changes at the deadline or just before.

How's it working out so far?

Dallas is 4-4 with Jason Kidd in the lineup, having lost to New Orleans, San Antonio, the Lakers and the Jazz. (In other words, the four teams they'll most likely need to get past in order to make the Finals and justify the Kidd trade.)

Phoenix is just 2-4 with Shaq, and some fans are getting restless, questioning whether Mike D'Antoni is able to adjust his system to a more half court-oriented team.

Cleveland is 3-2 since their extreme roster makeover… but the level of competition they've faced leaves a lot to be desired. They beat Memphis, Minnesota and the Bulls, but dropped games to Boston (the only real elite team they've faced) and Milwaukee.

Phoenix and Dallas are now 6th and 7th overall in the stacked Western Conference… with the Mavs just 2.5 games ahead of Golden State, currently in eighth. (Denver is ninth, 1.5 games behind the Warriors and three in back of Dallas).

Cleveland has much less to worry about – they don't stand much of a chance of catching Detroit for the Central Division crown and one of the top three seeds in the playoffs, and the bottom half of the East is so dreadful there's little chance they could fall any lower than the sixth seed. Besides, the level of competition the Cavs will face – such as tonight's game against the Knicks – is sort of training camp-esque anyway. The Cavs will have a much better chance to jell as a result.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Imperfect February for Houston

The Rockets' perfect February has suddenly developed some very deep flaws, with the news that Yao Ming will miss the remainder of the season and playoffs due to a stress fracture in his foot.

Fantasy owners will want to act quickly and put in a claim on Luis Scola. Scola was a decent pick even before this news – we wrote about his progress in last week's column. With Yao out of the mix, Scola likely becomes Houston's primary offensive option in the frontcourt. Scola is under 10 percent-owned in Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner – expect that number to rise quicker than the price of oil when the news of Yao’s injury really gets around.

Story continues at NBA.com...

NBA Barometer

As much as we love the trade deadline, it's sort of refreshing to stop dealing in conjecture and start dealing in facts.

That said, let's take a look at some of the early returns on last week's flurry of trades.

Cleveland:

The Cavaliers wasted no time getting new arrivals Ben Wallace, Delonte West, Joe Smith and Wally Szczerbiak involved. Wallace and West started Sunday's game against the Grizzlies, and all four played 25-plus minutes.

Wallace put up a "Big Ben in Detroit" type line, with 12 points, 10 boards, two steals and a block. West scored five points and dropped six dimes. Smith scored 14 points with six boards off the bench, and Szczerbiak scored 10 and hit two threes.

In terms of fantasy value, Szczerbiak might be the best play; the Cavaliers have wanted to add a lights-out shooter to their rotation for forever, and LeBron should have an easy time finding Wally World on the perimeter. We'd rate West – who gets a value boost due to Daniel Gibson's ankle injury – ahead of Smith or Wallace, who might have to compete with Anderson Varejao for minutes very soon.

Story continues at RotoWire.com...

Enter the Matrix

This week's Give and Go column features a breakdown of possible trade offers for Shawn Marion that have been floated in the RotoWire staff league. Check out the whole discussion between me and RotoWire's managing editor Chris Liss here (subscription required).

Sixer Speculation

(Originally published at NBA.com)

The axe finally dropped this week on Sixer general manager Billy King. It seems reasonable to expect that this won’t be the only change at the Wachovia Center – and that could mean excellent opportunities for fantasy owners willing to engage in a little speculation.

The most obvious candidate to be traded once new team president Ed Stefanski gets settled is veteran point guard Andre Miller. Miller’s name has been floated in trade rumors since he arrived in Philly as part of the Allen Iverson trade. There are several would-be contenders that could use help at the point – Miami and Cleveland have been mentioned as potential suitors, though others could emerge (Boston? The Lakers?). Moving Miller would give the Sixers a chance to give Louis Williams an extended audition as point-guard-of-the-future, and to decide what sort of contract to offer their second-round pick from 2005.

But Miller is hardly the only Sixer who might not want to unpack his bags after the next road trip. Consider this:

• After this season, Chris Webber’s contract comes off the books, as does Aaron McKie’s.
• Kevin Ollie, Shavlik Randolph and the aforementioned Williams also have deals that expire after this year.

With those salaries gone, the Sixers have a mere $39 million-and-change committed to player salaries for 2008-09. They could create even more space by moving a moderately-priced veteran or two (Reggie Evans? Kyle Korver? Willie Green?) for contracts that expire after this season or the next. It might even be worth Stefanski’s time to check for interest in Andre Iguodala, who recently decided not to sign a long-term deal with Philly.

Of course, if those veterans are moved, someone will need to step in and fill the void. That could mean a sudden surge in minutes and production for one or several members of the Sixers’ 25-and-under set. Watch the playing time and production of guys like Williams, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young and Rodney Carney, and be ready to make a claim.

Read the full article, including this week's waiver wire suggestions for deep and shallow leagues, at NBA.com or on RotoWire.

The Team Game

(Originally published on RotoWire.com)

Fantasy scoring is all about individual achievements... but sometimes, it pays to remember that basketball is a team game.

Case in point: Joe Johnson of the Hawks. Johnson is an elite fantasy contributor, due in large part for his ability to knock down the three. But Johnson plays for a very young, inexperienced Atlanta Hawks squad. That can be a benefit – Johnson is the unquestioned star of the show in Atlanta, and he gets as many minutes and shots as he can handle. But there's a down side that can manifest itself in very subtle ways. For example: on the season, he's shooting 30.9 percent from downtown – well off his career mark of 37 percent. What's the problem?

In Monday's game, Johnson shot 1-of-6 from three. Maybe he just wasn't "feeling it." But reports from the game indicate that several of Johnson's attempts came late in the shot clock – not set, open, stable jumpers -- desperation heaves.

Why are the Hawks getting so deep into the 24-second clock without a good look? Youth. Inexperience. Poor shot-clock management. And a revolving door at point guard, which certainly isn't helping them establish a rhythm in the half-court offense.

This is the sort of insight that can really help a fantasy owner. It indicates that there's nothing physically wrong with Johnson. It also indicates that his numbers should return to his established career norms if and when Atlanta gets some stability at the point, a healthy Tyronn Lue, or a more mature and experienced Acie Law. Keep an eye on this situation as it develops, and if the Hawks start getting better play from the point, consider making a buy-low offer on a guy like Johnson.

Read the full article, and all of this week's upgrades and downgrades, on Rotowire.com (subscription required).

NBA Barometer: No Joy in Wiz-Ville

(Originally published on RotoWire.com)

The NBA lost one of its most entertaining players – and one of fantasy hoops' superstars – when Gilbert Arenas suffered another knee injury last week.

Arenas' progress in rehab will be one of the most interesting hoops stories of the next three months or so. Reading between the lines of Arenas blog on NBA.com, we get the vibe that he thinks he was cleared to play before he was really ready. Any hint of distrust between Arenas and the Wizards' medical staff is significant; Arenas has an opt-out clause in his contract that will allow him to test free agency after the season if he so chooses. If the Wizards fall out of contention, Arenas may decide not to risk his health – and his possible fat free agent contract – playing out the string for a loser. The chances of him testing free agency would seem to increase exponentially if he thinks the team is putting his long-term health and earning potential at risk.

On the other hand, he might feel the need to come back and drop a few 40s and 50s down the stretch, just to show potential suitors that his knee is 100 percent.

In the meantime, look for the rest of Arenas' Wizards teammates to pick up the slack – and there's a lot of slack to go around. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will get the most immediate boost, but they're not available. Antonio Daniels might be – and Arenas' injury makes Daniels a highly-productive assist man as Washington's starter.

Another Wiz to watch is Andray Blatche, who showed enough skill and potential replacing Antawn Jamison late last season and Brendan Haywood more recently to merit some additional run.

Read the full article, and all of this week's upgrades and downgrades, on Rotowire.com (subscription required).