Welcome Back, Fellas

Couple of big names made surprise returns to the court last night:

Most Dramatic Return: Gilbert Arenas -- no question. Gotta hand it to Agent Zero: dude has a flair for the dramatic. He didn't even take his spot on the bench until five minutes had elapsed in the first quarter, so as not to give away the surprise.

The only way he could have improved on his entrance is if he'd come dancing down the aisle in an Uncle Sam costume like Apollo Creed before the Drago fight.

Unfortunately for the Wiz, the game ended a bit like the Drago fight... Arenas played nearly 20 minutes and scored 19 points, but Washington lost on a buzzer-beater by "who dat" guard Ramon Sessions -- and may have lost DeShawn Stevenson and Antawn Jamison to new injuries.

Most Surprising Return: Dirk Nowitzki's return surprised for a couple of reasons. First off -- high ankle sprains ordinarily don't heal that quickly... I shudder to think about the tape-job he needed to get on the court, or what his ankle is feeling like today. Second -- his return helped propel Dallas to a victory over a team with a winning record -- their first since the Jason Kidd trade.

Most Significant Return: This one could go to Pau Gasol, who played 30 minutes and scored 10 points in the Lakers' win over Portland -- but we're holding off on handing a title to the Lakers until we see their entire projected lineup - including Andrew Bynum - on the floor together.

As such, we're calling Elton Brand's return the most significant of the night... considering the game was his season debut. Brand came off the bench for 25-and-change minutes, scoring 19 points, grabbing five boards, and showing countless fantasy owners that they might get a bit of return on that roster spot he's been occupying all season.

In leagues where no one took a flyer on a possible return by Brand -- and according to the stats on Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner, that's around four out of every five leagues -- get to that waiver wire and make your claims. Where else are you going to find a 20-and-10 guy this late in the season?

NBA Barometer: No Joy in Wiz-Ville

(Originally published on RotoWire.com)

The NBA lost one of its most entertaining players – and one of fantasy hoops' superstars – when Gilbert Arenas suffered another knee injury last week.

Arenas' progress in rehab will be one of the most interesting hoops stories of the next three months or so. Reading between the lines of Arenas blog on NBA.com, we get the vibe that he thinks he was cleared to play before he was really ready. Any hint of distrust between Arenas and the Wizards' medical staff is significant; Arenas has an opt-out clause in his contract that will allow him to test free agency after the season if he so chooses. If the Wizards fall out of contention, Arenas may decide not to risk his health – and his possible fat free agent contract – playing out the string for a loser. The chances of him testing free agency would seem to increase exponentially if he thinks the team is putting his long-term health and earning potential at risk.

On the other hand, he might feel the need to come back and drop a few 40s and 50s down the stretch, just to show potential suitors that his knee is 100 percent.

In the meantime, look for the rest of Arenas' Wizards teammates to pick up the slack – and there's a lot of slack to go around. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will get the most immediate boost, but they're not available. Antonio Daniels might be – and Arenas' injury makes Daniels a highly-productive assist man as Washington's starter.

Another Wiz to watch is Andray Blatche, who showed enough skill and potential replacing Antawn Jamison late last season and Brendan Haywood more recently to merit some additional run.

Read the full article, and all of this week's upgrades and downgrades, on Rotowire.com (subscription required).

Fantasy NBA: Upgrades and Downgrades on Rotowire

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Too much? Too soon?

The original version of last week's barometer started with an extended discussion of Gilbert Arenas. Talked about the fact that Agent Zero really wasn't fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, that the Wizards had a tough early-season schedule and cautioned owners to be patient – not to panic if their first-round pick struggled a bit until Thanksgiving or so.

Course, in the lapse between when I wrote it and when it was published, Arenas dropped 34 points on the Pacers, playing 44 minutes on Halloween night. My prediction ended up on the cutting room floor, along with Jabba the Hutt's scene in the original Star Wars and Kevin Costner as the dead guy in The Big Chill.

But three games – and over 120 minutes of playing time – into the season, Arenas is struggling. He's shooting just 33 percent from the floor, hasn't hit from downtown in two straight games and was seen walking with a serious hitch in his step after Saturday's game. There's even talk that he'll need to have fluid removed from the surgically-repaired knee before Thursday's game. Luckily for Arenas, the Wizards, and fantasy players everywhere, the Wizards have a very long layoff between games (Saturday to Thursday). Maybe that will be enough time for him to recover from this setback.

Can't say I told you so - because I didn't. So instead I'll recycle the theme that was removed from last week's column.

Arenas is just one of several high-profile players that missed big chunks of the preseason only to jump into action opening night. Another that may be suffering from a case of "too much, too soon" is Amare Stoudemire. As with Arenas, Stoudemire had knee surgery in the offseason. As with Arenas, he had a strong outing in the season opener (23 points, 11 boards) and a shaky outing after that. Unlike Arenas, the Suns have already held Stoudemire out of one game, and it's not yet clear when he'll be back on the floor.

The lesson is clear - when watching the progress of players coming off injury who haven't had the benefit of a preseason's worth of conditioning, be more critical than you would ordinarily. Sometimes a 2-for-10 from the field is just a bad night. But when it's coming from a guy with a bad knee, it could be an indication of something more. That goes for fantasy superstars like Arenas and Stoudemire, Jason Kidd and Chris Bosh and also for sleepers and marginal plays like Renaldo Balkman.