Shades of Willis Reed

Dirk Nowitzki's return from injury has been nothing short of amazing.

When the diagnosis "high ankle sprain" was announced, most observers assumed Nowitzki would be – at the very least – hobbled for the rest of the regular season. The "two week" estimate for his return was viewed with skepticism – if not outright mockery. But Nowitzki made his surprise return to the lineup a mere 10 days later.

And the Nowitzki we're seeing isn't hobbling around like Kirk Gibson on ruined knees in the World Series. He's playing at – or above – his season averages. On a per-game basis since his return, Nowitzki's averaging 25.7 points and 7.0 rebounds. For the season: 23.5 points and 8.7 rebounds.

More importantly, he's leading the Mavs to wins. Dallas is in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule that will decide whether or not they make the playoffs in an unforgiving Western Conference. They've won two of three games since Nowitzki's return, beating the Warriors on April 2nd and the Suns on Sunday (with a loss at the Lakers in between). Those two wins are Dallas' only two over winning teams since the acquisition of Jason Kidd at the trade deadline.

As I write, the Mavs are in seventh place in the West, two games ahead of Golden State and Denver, with five games remaining. Their remaining games: Seattle (home), Utah (home), Portand (away), Seattle (away) and New Orleans (home) -- that's two must-wins over a bad Sonics team and three more chances to improve that record against winning teams. If they can close out the season on a high – maybe upset the Spurs in a first-round matchup – we might start talking about Dirk's ankle the way we talk about Willis' knees or Schilling's bloody sock.

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Bass Fishin'

Before you read the rest of this column, go put in a waiver claim on Brandon Bass. Hurry. I'll wait.

All set?

Good.

Now then... unless you've been in deep seclusion due to the fact that you had Duke, Georgetown and Pittsburgh in the Final Four, you know that Dirk Nowitzki suffered a "lower leg" injury during Sunday's game. As of Monday afternoon, that Bill Belichick-ian diagnosis has been clarified – Nowitzki has a high ankle sprain and a knee sprain. As you know if you read Jim Russo's "In Street Clothes" column here on RotoWire, a high ankle sprain is bad news. To quote Mr. Russo:

A high ankle sprain is more severe than the ankle sprains you typically see because it involves not only the stabilizing ligaments on the inside and outside of the ankle, but also the syndesmotic ligament, a circular shaped structure which wraps the distal end of the tibia and fibula, the long bones of the lower leg. When the ankle rolls severely, it can stretch this ligament causing those two bones to separate to a small degree. It's not much but the swelling and pain is extreme and the ankle becomes unstable.

Now I'm not much on book learnin' – but based on that explanation and the official diagnosis, it seems to me that the initial report that Dirk would return in two weeks is a bit aggressive.

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Skip to My Lou

The Rockets were so dissatisfied with their point guard position this offseason, it seemed they were very close to bringing guys in off the street for tryouts. Rafer Alston was the most unpopular incumbent this side of George Dubya Bush.

Mike James, Steve Francis, rookie Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, and John Lucas III were all considered candidates to take over the spot.

A few months later, the Rockets are riding the second-longest winning streak in NBA history even after losing Yao Ming for the season, and Rafer Alston has been a major factor – even before his 31-point explosion against the Lakers on Sunday. No less an authority than former Houston coach and ABC analyst Jeff Van Gundy has called Alston the key to the Rockets' winning streak and one of the top point guards in the league this season.

While we're not quite ready to group Skip to My Lou in the same league with Nashie, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Jason Kidd, Alston has been remarkably efficient of late. In eight games this March, he's averaging nearly 19 points on over 42 percent shooting from the field and from three -- with five assists, and just under four boards. He's also been an adept thief, with 1.6 steals per game.

Meanwhile – all those other guys who were supposed to take his job have faded into the background. Brooks has played in just four of eight games in March, and averaged under 10 minutes when he's gotten in. Mike James is gone, as is John Lucas. Francis is out for the year with a torn quad.

Of that list of backcourt players that at times resembled an American Idol audition, only Luther Head plays a significant role for the team today. He and Bobby Jackson – who arrived in the trade that sent James to New Orleans – are valuable 10-15 minute/night bench players for Houston; neither is considered a serious challenger for Alston's job.

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NBA Barometer

As much as we love the trade deadline, it's sort of refreshing to stop dealing in conjecture and start dealing in facts.

That said, let's take a look at some of the early returns on last week's flurry of trades.

Cleveland:

The Cavaliers wasted no time getting new arrivals Ben Wallace, Delonte West, Joe Smith and Wally Szczerbiak involved. Wallace and West started Sunday's game against the Grizzlies, and all four played 25-plus minutes.

Wallace put up a "Big Ben in Detroit" type line, with 12 points, 10 boards, two steals and a block. West scored five points and dropped six dimes. Smith scored 14 points with six boards off the bench, and Szczerbiak scored 10 and hit two threes.

In terms of fantasy value, Szczerbiak might be the best play; the Cavaliers have wanted to add a lights-out shooter to their rotation for forever, and LeBron should have an easy time finding Wally World on the perimeter. We'd rate West – who gets a value boost due to Daniel Gibson's ankle injury – ahead of Smith or Wallace, who might have to compete with Anderson Varejao for minutes very soon.

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NBA Barometer: No Joy in Wiz-Ville

(Originally published on RotoWire.com)

The NBA lost one of its most entertaining players – and one of fantasy hoops' superstars – when Gilbert Arenas suffered another knee injury last week.

Arenas' progress in rehab will be one of the most interesting hoops stories of the next three months or so. Reading between the lines of Arenas blog on NBA.com, we get the vibe that he thinks he was cleared to play before he was really ready. Any hint of distrust between Arenas and the Wizards' medical staff is significant; Arenas has an opt-out clause in his contract that will allow him to test free agency after the season if he so chooses. If the Wizards fall out of contention, Arenas may decide not to risk his health – and his possible fat free agent contract – playing out the string for a loser. The chances of him testing free agency would seem to increase exponentially if he thinks the team is putting his long-term health and earning potential at risk.

On the other hand, he might feel the need to come back and drop a few 40s and 50s down the stretch, just to show potential suitors that his knee is 100 percent.

In the meantime, look for the rest of Arenas' Wizards teammates to pick up the slack – and there's a lot of slack to go around. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will get the most immediate boost, but they're not available. Antonio Daniels might be – and Arenas' injury makes Daniels a highly-productive assist man as Washington's starter.

Another Wiz to watch is Andray Blatche, who showed enough skill and potential replacing Antawn Jamison late last season and Brendan Haywood more recently to merit some additional run.

Read the full article, and all of this week's upgrades and downgrades, on Rotowire.com (subscription required).

NBA Barometer: Too Good for Fantasy Hoops

There's any number of reasons to avoid having certain players on your fantasy team, ranging from "He'll kill my free throw percentage" to "I'm afraid he'll wind up in jail after taking an AK-47 to a nightclub" to "I really don't think he's any good."

Here's a new one for you.

"That team is just too good."

Team success in the NBA doesn't necessarily mean success for fantasy owners. Often, it's just the opposite. Title contenders may be very conservative with distribution of minutes, knowing that the season that really matters is the one that starts after the first 82 games have been played. Good teams will frequently blow out inferior opponents, and use garbage time to rest the regulars and empty the bench.

There's no better example than Tim Duncan and the Spurs. Just about any casual observer of the NBA would agree that Tim-MAY has the ability to put up 20-and-10 every night. But the fact is, the Spurs don't need that sort of production to be successful, and they'd rather keep Duncan fresh and healthy for the important games next spring. As a result, Duncan scores in the 12-16 point range many nights.

To read the entire column, which includes this week's player upgrades and downgrades, subscribe to RotoWire.com.

Fair and Balanced Fantasy Hoops

The good news... my weekly upgrades and downgrades column, the NBA Barometer, is now available on Fox Sports.

The bad... Fox doesn't have a fantasy basketball page, so the only way to find the article is to hit the main Fox Sports Fantasy page and check the "Headlines" and "Featured Analysis" sections.

Or, you can check here. I'll continue to post links as they're available.

Fantasy NBA: Upgrades and Downgrades on Rotowire

This week's NBA Barometer is live over on Rotowire. To read the full article, you need to subscribe.

Too much? Too soon?

The original version of last week's barometer started with an extended discussion of Gilbert Arenas. Talked about the fact that Agent Zero really wasn't fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, that the Wizards had a tough early-season schedule and cautioned owners to be patient – not to panic if their first-round pick struggled a bit until Thanksgiving or so.

Course, in the lapse between when I wrote it and when it was published, Arenas dropped 34 points on the Pacers, playing 44 minutes on Halloween night. My prediction ended up on the cutting room floor, along with Jabba the Hutt's scene in the original Star Wars and Kevin Costner as the dead guy in The Big Chill.

But three games – and over 120 minutes of playing time – into the season, Arenas is struggling. He's shooting just 33 percent from the floor, hasn't hit from downtown in two straight games and was seen walking with a serious hitch in his step after Saturday's game. There's even talk that he'll need to have fluid removed from the surgically-repaired knee before Thursday's game. Luckily for Arenas, the Wizards, and fantasy players everywhere, the Wizards have a very long layoff between games (Saturday to Thursday). Maybe that will be enough time for him to recover from this setback.

Can't say I told you so - because I didn't. So instead I'll recycle the theme that was removed from last week's column.

Arenas is just one of several high-profile players that missed big chunks of the preseason only to jump into action opening night. Another that may be suffering from a case of "too much, too soon" is Amare Stoudemire. As with Arenas, Stoudemire had knee surgery in the offseason. As with Arenas, he had a strong outing in the season opener (23 points, 11 boards) and a shaky outing after that. Unlike Arenas, the Suns have already held Stoudemire out of one game, and it's not yet clear when he'll be back on the floor.

The lesson is clear - when watching the progress of players coming off injury who haven't had the benefit of a preseason's worth of conditioning, be more critical than you would ordinarily. Sometimes a 2-for-10 from the field is just a bad night. But when it's coming from a guy with a bad knee, it could be an indication of something more. That goes for fantasy superstars like Arenas and Stoudemire, Jason Kidd and Chris Bosh and also for sleepers and marginal plays like Renaldo Balkman.

Downgrade D-Wade

New on Rotowire.com -- my weekly fantasy hoops "Barometer." In this week's article:

• Dwyane Wade has a championship ring. Will that have a negative effect on his fantasy value this season?
• NBA teams are finalizing their rosters, and a few recent lottery picks are looking for jobs.
• Halloween is the deadline for teams to pick up options for rookie contracts -- who is getting re-upped, and who is looking at free agency next summer?

Plus, the usual player upgrades and downgrades.

If you're not a Rotowire subscriber, you can check out the article in Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball.

Rotowire Barometer

In this week's Rotowire Barometer, we're taking a look at how lineups and rotations are shaping up for a number of teams across the NBA.

If you're not a Rotowire.com subscriber yet, you can also read the column on Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.