Give and Go: Donnie Walsh, the '07 Draft and More

From: zegers@rotowire.com
Subject: Give and Go
Date: March 25, 2008 7:50 AM PDT
To: liss@rotowire.com

First things first -- how are your brackets? Sadly, I had Pittsburgh and Georgetown in the Final Four, so my chances of finishing in the money are very similar to the Knicks' chances of making the playoffs.

I stand behind my Georgetown pick... but the Pitt selection, in retrospect, was pretty dumb. If I had factored in the "seven man rotation" factor and the "sent to Denver" factor, I might have realized that they'd be absolutely dead on their feet mid-way through the second half of their second game... which, of course, is what happened.

Now that you've had a chance to actually see some college ballers this year, anyone jump out at you as an NBA prospect?

That aside, there are two big NBA stories on all the back pages -- Dirk Nowitzki's injury and Donnie Walsh's job status.

Not much to say about Nowitzki that I didn't already say in this week's Barometer -- I love Brandon Bass as a short-term pickup in every fantasy format, and I think there's a very real possibility that the Mavs will fall out of the playoff picture. Agree? Disagree?

As for Donnie Walsh... as I wrote on my blog last week, I was really beginning to think Walsh was just using the Knicks to secure a better deal from the Pacers. (Actually, I'm not convinced that wasn't the case -- it may be that it just didn't work.) Now most of the NBA press is reporting that Walsh will take a job at Madison Square Garden any day now.

You think he's the right man for the job? He has an excellent reputation -- but the Pacers haven't exactly been the picture of stability over the last several seasons. Would you rather have him running your team, or one of the other oft-mentioned candidates -- a Kiki Vanderweghe or Jerry Colangelo or -- dare I suggest it -- Jerry West?

Personally, I'm a Colangelo guy. Jerry West, it has been reported, hates New York -- at best, hiring the Logo means giving an NBA legend one more payday... but the Knicks just did that with Isiah Thomas.

I'm not sure what Kiki did to merit the reputation he seems to have as a front-office guy, aside from having 'Melo fall into his lap. Tell me again where he drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili? Fifth overall? In a draft where Amare Stoudemire went ninth and Caron Butler 10th?

Actually, a lot of guys would like a do-over in that draft... after Yao Ming (1st) Stoudemire and Butler there's a whole lot of "unfulfilled potential" in the top of that draft.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Working the Wire

Last week in this space, I wrote about injuries as the main source of useful fantasy players at this point of the season.

This week, we’ll put that theory to the test.

The Injury: Dirk Nowitzki suffered the dreaded “high ankle” sprain as well as a sprained knee during Sunday’s game.

The prognosis: The ankle injury is being called “moderate” while the knee injury is “slight.”
Initial estimates had him returning in as little as a week to two weeks – but short of a pilgrimage to Lourdes, high ankle sprains don’t typically heal that fast.

The options: You’d generally expect him to be shelved for 3-4 weeks with this sort of injury – but the season ends three weeks from today.

Dallas is in a particularly tough spot. They’re currently sitting in seventh place in the West and are very much in danger of falling out of playoff position. At the same time, they really can’t risk losing Nowitzki for the playoffs, should they qualify. So the scenarios might break down like this:

Story continues on NBA.com...

Bass Fishin'

Before you read the rest of this column, go put in a waiver claim on Brandon Bass. Hurry. I'll wait.

All set?

Good.

Now then... unless you've been in deep seclusion due to the fact that you had Duke, Georgetown and Pittsburgh in the Final Four, you know that Dirk Nowitzki suffered a "lower leg" injury during Sunday's game. As of Monday afternoon, that Bill Belichick-ian diagnosis has been clarified – Nowitzki has a high ankle sprain and a knee sprain. As you know if you read Jim Russo's "In Street Clothes" column here on RotoWire, a high ankle sprain is bad news. To quote Mr. Russo:

A high ankle sprain is more severe than the ankle sprains you typically see because it involves not only the stabilizing ligaments on the inside and outside of the ankle, but also the syndesmotic ligament, a circular shaped structure which wraps the distal end of the tibia and fibula, the long bones of the lower leg. When the ankle rolls severely, it can stretch this ligament causing those two bones to separate to a small degree. It's not much but the swelling and pain is extreme and the ankle becomes unstable.

Now I'm not much on book learnin' – but based on that explanation and the official diagnosis, it seems to me that the initial report that Dirk would return in two weeks is a bit aggressive.

Article continues on Rotowire.com...

Working the Wire

With the NCAA Tournament starting this week, it seems appropriate to kick off this week’s column with a quote from a legend in the college hoops ranks, Mr. Rick Pitino.

Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door.

Now, Rick Pitino was addressing what he felt were overly negative Boston fans at the time… not fantasy basketball owners. But the point is a good one for fantasy GMs to consider. By this point of the season, it’s incredibly unlikely that you’ll land a superstar – or even a solid top-of-rotation player on the waiver wire. It’s time to set your sights a bit lower.


Column continues on NBA.com...

The Donnie Walsh Bait & Switch

The New York Daily News has reporters following Donnie Walsh around like pararazzi chasing a panty-less Britney Spears.

He's considering leaving the Pacers, they say... He doesn't like sharing responsibility with Larry Bird... Bird doesn't think the power-sharing arrangement in Indiana is working either.

Yadda yadda yadda.

And today, via ESPN.com, we have the kicker. Bird isn't sure he'll be back as Pacers president next season.

Doesn't this all seem a bit strange?

If Walsh is leaving, why would Bird be leaving too? Unless all this talk with the Knicks is simply Walsh's way of saying "you can have Larry Legend... or you can have me. Oh, and FYI... when I was running the show, we were actually pretty good."

Like maybe... just maybe... ol' Donnie Walsh is using an extended flirtation with Jim Dolan to drive out a rival and win back control of the Pacers.

Brackets

Selection Sunday has come and gone, and now it's time to get down to business...

Here's our breakdown of the 2008 NCAA Tournament, region by region.

Story continues on About.com...

Sure they can shoot... but how are their grades?

By one standard, the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky should be the top seed in this year's NCAA Tournament.

That standard is academic achievement.

According to the report Keeping Score When It Counts: Graduation Rates for 2008 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament Teams, released March 17th by the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport (TIDES) at the University of Central Florida, the Hilltoppers boast a 100% graduation success among student athletes in the basketball program over six years.

The rest of the "academic final four" would be Butler at 92%, with Notre Dame and Purdue tied at 91%.

Most of the tournament's top seeds didn't fare nearly as well in the study.

Story continues on About.com...

Skip to My Lou

The Rockets were so dissatisfied with their point guard position this offseason, it seemed they were very close to bringing guys in off the street for tryouts. Rafer Alston was the most unpopular incumbent this side of George Dubya Bush.

Mike James, Steve Francis, rookie Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, and John Lucas III were all considered candidates to take over the spot.

A few months later, the Rockets are riding the second-longest winning streak in NBA history even after losing Yao Ming for the season, and Rafer Alston has been a major factor – even before his 31-point explosion against the Lakers on Sunday. No less an authority than former Houston coach and ABC analyst Jeff Van Gundy has called Alston the key to the Rockets' winning streak and one of the top point guards in the league this season.

While we're not quite ready to group Skip to My Lou in the same league with Nashie, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Jason Kidd, Alston has been remarkably efficient of late. In eight games this March, he's averaging nearly 19 points on over 42 percent shooting from the field and from three -- with five assists, and just under four boards. He's also been an adept thief, with 1.6 steals per game.

Meanwhile – all those other guys who were supposed to take his job have faded into the background. Brooks has played in just four of eight games in March, and averaged under 10 minutes when he's gotten in. Mike James is gone, as is John Lucas. Francis is out for the year with a torn quad.

Of that list of backcourt players that at times resembled an American Idol audition, only Luther Head plays a significant role for the team today. He and Bobby Jackson – who arrived in the trade that sent James to New Orleans – are valuable 10-15 minute/night bench players for Houston; neither is considered a serious challenger for Alston's job.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Planting Seeds

Here's a trend that's unlikely to surprise even the most casual observer of the NCAA Tournament:

The higher-seeded teams do better.

Here's a deeper look at that shocking trend, as well as some others that may assist as you fill out your NCAA brackets:

One Seeds in the Final Four

Here's another unsurprising factoid. Since 1979 -- the year the NCAA started assigning seeds to tournament teams -- number one seeds have landed 47 of a possible 116 slots in the Final Four. That's a rate of just over 40.5 percent.

Number one seeds have:

• Won 16 of 29 titles (over 55%)
• Been runner-up 11 times (38%)

That said, there has never been an NCAA Tournament where all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four.


Column continues on About.com...

Domino Effect

Sometimes waiver wire transactions are obvious. When the “Dwyane Wade: out for the year” story hit the Internet, fantasy players everywhere put in claims on Ricky Davis. That’s a no-brainer.

But Ricky Davis was already owned in a lot of leagues – the savvy owner knows to dig a bit deeper. Davis had value coming off the bench, right? That means if Davis moves into the starting rotation, the guy who replaces him as bench scorer will have value too.

Call it the transitive property of fantasy NBA rosters.

Watching for these chain reactions becomes far more valuable at this time of year, when players like Wade start shutting things down for the season due to nagging injuries or opt for early surgery in the hopes of being fully rehabbed for the start of the 2008-09 campaign.

Here’s a look at the two examples (with percent-owned stats from Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner in parentheses):

The injured player: Dwyane Wade
The obvious fill-in: Ricky Davis (94.1%)
Secondary options: Marcus Banks (0%), Daequan Cook (0.7%)

The injured player: Eddy Curry
The obvious fill-in: David Lee (90.8%)
Secondary options: Malik Rose (0%), Randolph Morris (0%)

Obviously, some of the secondary fill-ins come with a really big “approach with caution” label. We’re not suggesting you put in a waiver claim on Malik Rose – just outlining a strategy to use in digging for help on the wire when the next frontline player packs it in for this year.

Article continues on NBA.com...

Curse of the Zegers

From: zegers@rotowire.com
Subject: Give and Go
Date: March 11, 2008 7:43 AM PDT
To: liss@rotowire.com

As jinxes go, the "Curse of the Zegers" has a ways to go before it catches up to the "Curse of the Bambino" or that of that billy-goat. The Rockets are 6-0 since you accused me of jinxing them in this column. Of course, they're also riding a 19-game winning streak -- the second-longest in NBA history -- and seem to have two more highly-winnable games (at Atlanta, Charlotte) on the schedule before they face a real challenge against the Lakers this Sunday.

This streak would be remarkable even if they hadn't lost their all-NBA center in the middle.

How are they doing this? It seems that they've landed in a "best of both worlds" situation -- they're still executing Jeff Van Gundy-style stifling defense, but they've become comfortable in Rick Adelman's open and flexible offense -- and the two systems seem to complement each other far better than most would have expected.

Adelman also seems to be doing a remarkably good job of pulling the strings -- he got 11 points out of little-used Steve Novak last night, and his decision to start 74-year-old Dikembe Mutombo is looking particularly brilliant. Did you see how ol' Deke goaded Richard Jefferson into a technical last night with his finger-wagging?

And we can't forget our kindred spirit, stat-geek general manager Daryl Morey, who assembled a very deep roster.

Since you're our resident Rockets scientist, I'll defer to you for a full explanation. How far can they carry this momentum? Are they a legit title contender?

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

D is for Dikembe and That's Good Enough for Me

Thank god for Henry Abbott at True Hoop. Without him, I'd probably never see things like this:



Of course, I still think the most convincing Dikembe Mutombo impression comes from this guy:

Let's Get One Thing Straight...

Quick note to Bill Simmons, and the guys at Str8Balling, and anyone else making suggestions:

Trading David Lee is not an option.

Trading David Lee is the last thing the Knicks should do.

David Lee is just about the only thing that's right with the Knicks currently...

(I say "just about..." because the jury is out on Wilson Chandler, but I'm encouraged.)

If I was running the team -- and it seems I have a better chance than Isiah Thomas of making the decisions for next season -- here's what I'd do: Tear this sucker down and start over.

1. Get rid of either Zach Randolph or Eddy Curry. I don't care if you have to take pennies on the dollar -- one of them has to go. The other can start alongside Lee in the frontcourt. Moving both would be ideal, but hey, I'm a realist.
2. Get rid of Jamal Crawford. He could help a contender as a scoring sixth man -- think Ben Gordon, back when the Bulls were considered a big man away from title contention. But as a lead player, his horrifying defense and decision-making hurts more than it helps.
3. Fill these needs in the offseason -- either via the draft, trade or free agency: a point guard, a shooting wing, and a shot blocker.
   
4. Quentin Richardson and Jared Jeffries should have no place in next year's plans. Same goes, obviously, for Stephon Marbury.

Much will depend on the lottery -- there are some excellent point guard options at the top of the draft, assuming Derrick Rose and Jerryd Bayless come out.

Operation Shutdown

We've hit the point in the season when the status of several key players will be governed by the law of diminishing returns. Why force a player to hobble through 20 more games, when he can get a jump-start on surgery or treatment or rehab and increase the chances he'll be healthy for the start of the 2008-09 campaign?

The biggest name to initiate Operation Shutdown so far is Dwyane Wade. (We don't include Yao Ming in this count – it's not like Yao had a choice about sitting out the rest of the season.) We've been expecting this for several weeks - the Heat aren't winning games with him, he hasn't been 100 percent healthy all season - letting him heal seems like the most logical course of action.

Of course, like Yao, Wade is reportedly targeting the Olympics, and not the start of next season, for his return to the court. Expect that to be the subject of much controversy in the offseason, particularly if either superstar experiences any sort of setback in rehab.

The next player who might appear on this list is the Knicks' Eddy Curry. With Zach Randolph on the shelf, Curry was actually very productive for three straight games, scoring 19, 20 and 23 points. Apparently the exertion was too much for him; the New York Post reports that he has torn cartilage in his knee and may need surgery.

Other candidates: Milwaukee forward Yi Jianlian, who continues to suffer from an as-yet undetermined wrist injury, Washington swingman DeShawn Stevenson, who reportedly needs a cane to walk after games due to the pain in his knee, and Caron Butler, whose hip injury is still weeks away from healing.

As more teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, look for this list to grow.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

Did Anyone Else See That?

I could swear I just saw the New York Knicks block two shots...

On one possession.

One of them by Eddy Curry.

Did anyone else see that? Or am I experiencing some sort of fever dream?

That's it. I must have malaria.

Malaria. In New York. In March. That must be it. That's far more plausible than the Knicks actually playing some defense.

George Karl is a Big Fat Idiot

Eh, I don't really believe that. Ol' George seems to be a good guy. He's done a lot of charity work. He has little use for Isiah Thomas, which obviously earns him points in my book.

I'm just hoping Furious George's lawyer will get into a snit and send me tons of free traffic.

Y'know, the way he did when he sent threatening e-mails to the guy behind FireGeorgeKarl.com.

For giggles -- or for yet another example of how you don't need common sense or media savvy to earn a law degree, check out the original e-mail from Bret Adams to Andrew Feinstein. Then check out some of the feedback and analysis from the legal community, posted on True Hoop.

Working the Wire: Rockets Blasting Off

The news of Yao Ming’s season-ending injury broke last week as I was writing this column, so I spent a little time in that piece discussing how the absence of an all-world center would impact the production of Houston’s waiver-available players.

Now that we have a few games’ worth of stats to review, let’s take a second look and see who’s stepping up.

Each player is listed with his Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner percent-owned stat in parentheses.

Column continues on NBA.com...

Give and Go: Injury Reports

Caron Butler has been the best player on one of my teams for the better part of this season. So like a lot of fantasy NBA players, I was pretty frustrated by the way the Wizards have handled his latest injury. For those who haven't been keeping close tabs, the updates went something like this:

Day 1: Ah, he tweaked his hip. He's day-to-day.

Day 2: He's day-to-day.

Day 3-10: He's day-to-day.

Day 11: He's got a torn something-or-other, he'll be out for a while.

(I'll leave the actual description of the injury and its ramifications to our esteemed colleague Mr. Russo.)

I don't know if the Wizards weren't being honest, or if they just didn't know the extent of the injury at first. But I can't help but think that they weren't being 100 percent straight with me. I imagine it's a similar feeling to what baseball owners went through with B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays last season. (That was, "it's a sprain... it's a sprain... it's Tommy John surgery," for those who blocked out the details.)

So my question is... how much information do sports teams owe fans/fantasy players, where player injuries are concerned? On the one hand, there's an obvious competitive advantage to playing these things close to the vest. But on the other, there are any number of reasons that it's only fair for fans to know whether or not their favorite players are suiting up on a given night. If I'm dropping a couple hundred dollars on tickets to an NBA game, I want to have some assurance that I'm going to see Kobe Bryant and not Sasha Vujacic, y'know?

Column continues on RotoWire.com...

How's That Working Out For You?

In last week's Give and Go column, Chris Liss and I talked about how difficult it is for NBA teams to handle major personnel changes at mid-season. Comfort level and familiarity with teammates is so crucial to success at both ends of the floor – and that really only comes from practice reps. And yet, several teams with title aspirations decided to roll the dice this year and make major changes at the deadline or just before.

How's it working out so far?

Dallas is 4-4 with Jason Kidd in the lineup, having lost to New Orleans, San Antonio, the Lakers and the Jazz. (In other words, the four teams they'll most likely need to get past in order to make the Finals and justify the Kidd trade.)

Phoenix is just 2-4 with Shaq, and some fans are getting restless, questioning whether Mike D'Antoni is able to adjust his system to a more half court-oriented team.

Cleveland is 3-2 since their extreme roster makeover… but the level of competition they've faced leaves a lot to be desired. They beat Memphis, Minnesota and the Bulls, but dropped games to Boston (the only real elite team they've faced) and Milwaukee.

Phoenix and Dallas are now 6th and 7th overall in the stacked Western Conference… with the Mavs just 2.5 games ahead of Golden State, currently in eighth. (Denver is ninth, 1.5 games behind the Warriors and three in back of Dallas).

Cleveland has much less to worry about – they don't stand much of a chance of catching Detroit for the Central Division crown and one of the top three seeds in the playoffs, and the bottom half of the East is so dreadful there's little chance they could fall any lower than the sixth seed. Besides, the level of competition the Cavs will face – such as tonight's game against the Knicks – is sort of training camp-esque anyway. The Cavs will have a much better chance to jell as a result.

Column continues on RotoWire.com...