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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

NBA Barometer: Too Good for Fantasy Hoops

There's any number of reasons to avoid having certain players on your fantasy team, ranging from "He'll kill my free throw percentage" to "I'm afraid he'll wind up in jail after taking an AK-47 to a nightclub" to "I really don't think he's any good."

Here's a new one for you.

"That team is just too good."

Team success in the NBA doesn't necessarily mean success for fantasy owners. Often, it's just the opposite. Title contenders may be very conservative with distribution of minutes, knowing that the season that really matters is the one that starts after the first 82 games have been played. Good teams will frequently blow out inferior opponents, and use garbage time to rest the regulars and empty the bench.

There's no better example than Tim Duncan and the Spurs. Just about any casual observer of the NBA would agree that Tim-MAY has the ability to put up 20-and-10 every night. But the fact is, the Spurs don't need that sort of production to be successful, and they'd rather keep Duncan fresh and healthy for the important games next spring. As a result, Duncan scores in the 12-16 point range many nights.

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