The Risks Associated with International Travel

Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, "When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?"
-- Saturday Night Live, "Bad Idea Jeans"

I've been taking a beating on the comment board of my 2006-07 Fantasy Busts column (Rotowire.com subscription required)... mostly for suggesting that Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade might not live up to the hype this season.

My reasoning? Paul just played an 82-game NBA season for the first time, then followed it up with a lot of difficult minutes for Team USA. Wade played all the way into June and then joined the national team, with very little time for rest or recovery. In either case, I'm concerned about the number of miles on their odometers this year, and thinking they might not play up to their usual standards.

On the other hand, Kevin Pelton of 82games.com has an analysis that says I'm way off base; that there's no evidence to suggest that players in Paul or Wade's situations are at a higher risk of injury. (For the record, his column doesn't factor in players who are hurt while participating in international competitions -- like Tony Parker or Pau Gasol.)

I'm still on the fence. I'll concede that you can't make a blanket statement that players who participate in big-time tournaments over the summer are at a higher risk of injury. I'll even admit that some players probably benefit enormously from the international competition. (I think Carmelo Anthony is this year's example -- I think the leadership role he took with Team USA will benefit him, and the Nuggets, enormously this year.)

But I'm still not taking Paul or Wade in the first round of any of my drafts.